Methodology
How AerInvest Actually Values a Stock
Worked example: NVDA, live as of September 25, 2026
Most stock-research tools give you a verdict — a rating, a color, a badge — without showing how they got there. AerInvest's fair value is built from three components, blended into one number. Here's exactly how, using the live analysis for NVDA (NVIDIA Corporation) as the example — these are real numbers pulled from the same engine every AerInvest user sees, not illustrative placeholders.
NVDA
NVIDIA Corporation · Stock
Current price
USD 225.07
12-month price scenarios
USD 53.37
USD 77.50
USD 77.50
1. Discounted Cash Flow (40% weight)
A 5-year free-cash-flow projection, discounted back at a WACC derived from the company's beta and debt/equity — not a flat assumption. NVDA's valuation framework here is: Valuation engine: DCF cash-flow model, Free-cash-flow yield capitalization, Forward earnings power, weighted by data quality. Confidence 50/100; the signal is checked against cash flow, profitability, revenue trend and the 200-day trend before it is shown.. Key assumptions feeding it:
- Current price: USD 225.07 — Primary anchor for scenario analysis.
- 52W position: 84/100 — Used as a momentum and drawdown context proxy.
- Market cap: N/A — Used as a rough liquidity and business-scale proxy.
- P/E ratio: Unavailable — Used as one valuation sanity check, not a complete model.
2. Relative Multiples (35% weight)
P/E, EV/EBITDA and P/FCF compared against sector peers, adjusted for quality — a company growing faster or carrying less debt than its peer group earns a premium multiple, not the peer median applied blindly. Peer context for NVDA: Peer valuation needs comparable-company data for a stronger conclusion.
3. AI Quality Score (25% weight)
An AI model scores the company across several fundamental factors and adjusts the blended fair value by up to 15% based on quality signals a pure multiple can miss. The factor breakdown for this analysis:
- Fundamental Intelligence52/100 — Balanced contribution with 34% model weight and explicit data-quality penalties.
- Market Intelligence72/100 — Constructive contribution with 18% model weight and explicit data-quality penalties.
- Sentiment Intelligence49/100 — Defensive contribution with 12% model weight and explicit data-quality penalties.
- Macro Intelligence55/100 — Balanced contribution with 14% model weight and explicit data-quality penalties.
- Risk Intelligence30/100 — Defensive contribution with 22% model weight and explicit data-quality penalties.
The three scenarios, not one number
A single fair-value figure hides how much of the estimate depends on assumptions that could go either way. The range above shows that spread explicitly — downside path USD 53.37, cautious path USD 77.50, growth path USD 77.50. If the downside and growth paths are close together, confidence is higher; if they're far apart, that spread itself is information.
What could break this thesis
- Company-specific risks need fundamentals that are not available for this ticker right now — see Data Quality below.
Not investment advice
This is a live analysis pulled from the same engine every AerInvest user sees — it will change as NVDA's price, financials and estimates change. It illustrates the methodology, not a standing recommendation. See the full disclosure.